Radical Revolution

24 Jun

The Heaven Scenario

HS10401 권혁정

 

Among the scenarios described in the book ‘Radical Revolution’, I consider ‘The Heaven Scenario’ as the most crucial scenario. While I was reading throughout the book, there were two scenarios that I thought was possibly going to happen in the future. One of it was the Heaven Scenario and the other one was the Prevail Scenario. However, the reason I chose Heaven Scenario, not the Prevail scenario is because I thought prevail scenario views the world too affirmatively. Global warming is an inevitable thing, however, according to prevail scenario, it says people will get over all those adversities. In my opinion, this is not really possible. There are some problems we can’t solve and I am not sure that people will be able to solve all the other problems too. Therefore, I think Heaven Scenario is better and will further explain about the heaven scenario.

           Heaven scenario is (2) stealing fire from the gods, breathing life into inert matter and gaining immortality. In other words, the technology will concur this world. To describe heaven scenario furthermore, the predetermined element is that there are Curves of exponential change governing technology.(1) This means there are lot of changes occurring in the technology field. Secondarily, the critical uncertainties include how fast the technology is developing and how it is influencing us. Next, the third figure is the embedded assumption. The embedded assumption is that technology drives history(3). Lastly, there is an early warning for entering the heaven scenario and are not entering the heaven scenario. The warning for entering is that technology is further developing. Moreover, humans are not concurred by it, but humans actually conquer them. Also the warning for not entering the heaven scenario is that (4)almost unimaginably bad things start happening.

           The first key figure of the heaven scenario is Ray Kurzweil. He is a very talented inventor, and one who starts the idea of the heaven scenario. The second figure is Molly. Kurzweil really likes her and actually had said, ‘the woman I would want to be’(5). Molly has said that in 2029 George, a robot assistant will help her, and will be extremely smart. Next, the third key figure is the Three Laws of Robotics. It includes that robots should not injure human, robot should obey, and robots should protect its own. This emphasizes the fact that robots are under the human beings. Furthermore, the forth figure is Buckminster Fuller. He has developed bucky ball, which strengthens the DNA. Likewise, people are inventing many things and as the heaven scenario explains, the inventions will never stop, but never will be better than us. The last figure is Rodney Allen Brook. He said “We are trying to build robots that have properties of living systems that robots haven’t had before”.(6) This means, human beings will invent a robot as innovative as they can, however, they will have owner, and only move under robots.

           Likewise, in the future, technologies are going to do many things for us in the future. Everything will be automatic. However, they will never be better than human. The disequilibrium is that the fact is that people will always be the best in this world. Lastly, solution is to prevent the technology to develop a lot. For instance, technology should never overwhelm the capacity of human beings. They should never catch up the humans’ knowledge and brain functions. Therefore, in the future, The Heaven Scenario makes sense the most, and the practicality of the heaven scenario made me chose as the favorite scenario.

 

<REFERENCES>

(1)-Page 130

 

(2)-Page 106

 

(3)-Page 130

 

(4)-Page 131

 

(5)-Page 103

 

(6)-Page 124

 

General Idea: http://justintadlock.com/archives/2007/01/24/radical-evolution

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